I've been thinking about this whole iPhone third party application situation. Specifically, what is up Apple's sleeve? Well I certainly don't have any inside scoop on all of this but I do have an opinion.
* I think Apple is quietly putting together a software developer kit that is either already in the hands of a few choice developers with really strong non-disclosure agreement or about to be released to them.
* When it does release, I don't think the SDK will ever be generally available. I think it will be a relatively short list of select developers and grow over time ... s l o w l y.
* Apple will screen and approve everything before it is released to us plebeians. It is all about preserving the user experience. Apple will also make a few bucks off it since the stuff will only be available through iTunes.
* There isn't going to be a whole lot of innovation but everything that does release will be very slick.
* There will be more games than actual productivity type applications. This will crimp my zen.
There you have it. The MacSparky crystal ball. Now when I'm proven wrong, everyone can laugh.