The Android App Store Problem

Eric Schmidt predicts that in six months, iOS developers will be flocking to Android, even if they don’t like it. Ummm, think again.

Android’s marketshare continues to climb and that is presumably a good thing for Android but mere numbers does not create a vibrant app market. There need to be two pieces for a successful platform app store: 1. a trustworthy store, and 2. customers. Android has neither of these.

The Theoretical Android App Store

While there are no shortage of issues with Apple’s own App Store, there are a few things it really nails. Apple provides a safe and easy environment to deliver apps and seperate customers from their money. This is where Android misses the boat. If Google wants to attract developers, they shouldn’t worry so much about marketshare and instead focus on getting a reliable payment system and an app purchase environment where customers aren’t constantly getting stiffed. Amazon seems to be making the best efforts to fix this but there are some truly legendary stories about what a spectacular job they are doing screwing it up. With so many different form factors, screen sizes, and system specs, it is going to be a lot harder for Google (or somebody) to deliver the iOS App Store experience on Android.

“Free is Better! Hooray!”

Android owners don’t buy apps. With very few exceptions, every Android owner I’ve talked to is only interested in free apps. To hell with the user interface. Put ads everywhere. Just don’t charge any money. (Perhaps all of the on-screen ads explains the arms race of larger screen sizes.) I don’t mean this as some sort of character attack against Android owners, many of whom are very nice people. I just think that, for whatever reason, Android users are not interested in paying for mobile apps. I’ve been talking to Android and iOS owners about this for years and the theme is consistent. iOS owners buy lots of apps: Android owners don’t.

I don’t know if it is a lack of trust in the payment system or simply a culture of “free” but ask your Android toting friends how many apps they’ve purchased and the answer will be few, if any. The short of it is that Android devices could multiply like locusts but if people don’t buy apps for them, developers will stay away.

Pearl Harbor

It seems 9/11 is the day our generation remembers but for our parents, the day in infamy was December 7, Pearl Harbor day. The Legal History Blog has an interesting take on remembering Pearl Harbor and avoiding the trap of thinking things were any simpler back then.

Last Day for Discounted Macworld|iWorld iFan Pass

The hours are counting down for the $75 iFan pass to Macworld|iWorld. Tomorrow it goes up to $100. While that is still a great value, why not save $25. With $25 you could:

  • Buy all of the episodes of Firefly
  • Buy a couple of those frappuccino thingies at Starbucks
  • Take your significant other to a movie
  • Buy my book
  • Convert the money to $2 bills and act like Steve Wozniak 12.5 times

I’m already hard at work on my sessions this year which will be fantastic. There is lots of great content and plenty of fun waiting for you at Moscone Center next month so get cracking.

MPU 65: Workflows with Horace Dediu

Mac Power Users Episode 65, Workflows with Horace Dediu, is available for download. Horace is the mind behind Asymco.com. In addition to some very insightful information about how he goes about his analysis at Asymco, Horace speaks at some length about where presentation software and technology is heading. I particularly like the way he explained presenters need to use stagecraft. I spent several years on stage through high school and college and, in hindsight, realize I use many of the tricks learned there in my day job. Get the episode over at 5by5. Also, don’t forget to subscribe in iTunes.

App Store Bundle

One (of several) reasons I’ve soured on bundle deals is that I really prefer buying apps through the Mac App Store. Zero Ninety Nine is the first Mac App Store bundle-ish deal I’ve seen. Several apps are marked down to 99 cents for the rest of today. This is interesting. I wonder if it will take off.

Refurbished Apple Products

Macworld has a nice write up about buying refurbished Macs. I’ve bought several Macs over the years this way. Indeed both of my current Macs and my wife’s MacBook all come from the the Refurb Store. I’ve never had a problem. An argument could be made that refurbished Macs have even more love and attention before shipping to you than those hot off the assembly line in China.

If you go that route, there are a few tips:

  • Be Patient. Sometimes it takes awhile. Once I decided to replace my iMac, it took 5 weeks for the ‘right deal’ to show up for me in the refurb store. I ended up getting over $600 off on exactly the Mac I wanted.
  • Pull the Trigger Fast. When you do see the Mac you want, buy it. The best deals don’t last long.

Microsoft Office and the iPad

The Internet was abuzz yesterday about rumors of a version of Microsoft Office on the iPad. Why not? Some believe this will never happen. The reason, they argue, is that Microsoft needs to establish itself in the mobile space and the best way to do that is to keep Office exclusive to Microsoft’s tablet platform. If people need a Windows 8 tablet for Office, they will theoretically abandon iOS and Android. I’m sure some at Microsoft think this is the right move. It isn’t. Microsoft would be foolish to not embrace the iPad (and Android) for a couple of reasons:

1. Microsoft is a software company.

Since the beginning, Microsoft is about software. As of September 2011, there were are already nearly 40 million iPads in the wild. After the holidays, that number will be substantially larger. Let’s say Microsoft sells a stripped down Office for $30 and 1/4 of existing iPad owners buy it. That is $300M.

2. Microsoft Needs to Maintain Office Ubiquity

For the longest time, Office was the ubiquitous productivity suite. Everybody used it. Nobody considered using anything else. However, since this mobile revolution started, even non-geeks are starting to question whether Office is still all that. I had breakfast this morning with a CPA who does all of his work in Google docs. There is an entire generation of future workers going through high school and college now who don’t even have Office installed on their computers. If Microsoft has any hopes of keeping Office relevant, it needs to be everywhere, including the iPad.

To corral Office to just some future Microsoft tablet would be a mistake. That is, essentially, betting Office’s future relevance on the possibility that Microsoft will become a dominant player in future mobile computing. Instead, what would happen is that the millions of iOS and Android users will snap out of the Office trance and move on. Once they realize they don’t need office on their tablets, its utility on their desktops will also be questioned. Ubiquity lost.

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